Storm on the Iranian Front Grows

Interesting and very concerning developments over the past few weeks regarding a possible strike on Iran. Last month, the Israeli air force conducted a major air power exercise involving roughly 100 advanced F-15I Ra’am and F-16I Sufa fighters. The aircraft took off from their bases in Israel, traveled west over the Med as far as Greece and returned, covering a span of almost 1200 miles roundtrip, roughly the same distance between Israel and Iran’s Nataz nuclear-enrichment facilities near Esfahan. The exercise focused on mid-air refueling and search and rescue for downed aviators; it was a resounding success. Last week, in response to an Iranian statement that maritime assets would be destroyed in the Persian Gulf and the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz (25% of the worlds daily oil supply travels through these waters) if Iranian “interests are jeopardized”, the US Navy stated it would not allow Iran to close the waterway and announced a major naval exercise designed to ensure readiness and refine tactics within the 5th Fleet. These exercises were greeted by several missile tests near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran.

On the diplomatic front, statements of concern have been issued by Beijing and Tokyo, a huge development considering China and Japan are Iran’s largest oil importers and neither country had commented on the crisis.

Furthermore, in a post that is both brilliant and terrifying, Galrahn notes the domestic political developments:

I can't say I'm excited about [the FISA] bill, but I can live with it, perhaps literally. Following an attack on Iran by Israel, Iran is not going to find much success trying to sink the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in the Indian Ocean, but they might have a great deal of success killing you and me here in America. We don't believe for one second that Iran is going to abide by the Geneva Conventions and not intentionally support the killing of American civilians in North America. If war happens, they are as likely if not more likely to attack here than in the Gulf. Whether you like it or not, there was absolutely no way the Democrats, including Barack Obama, were going to leave the possibility open that Israel attacks Iran, and the US gets hit by terrorist attacks inside the US while the FISA bill wasn't passed.

This is a key point. The Democratic Party in mass shifted from a core position. This doesn't happen without keen awareness to some strategic condition. Clearly some outside force has produced conditions which are far outside the scope of national politics, because nothing short of insight and real concern for political survival would Democrats find inspiration for such a massive policy shift with virtually no explanation to its core constituency. This is a major reason, and to Democrats scratching still (sic) their heads, an obvious sign we believe that Israel has demanded a time table.

So there you have it: the conditions seem to indicate that something big is going to happen in the next few months and we could very well be dragged into a fight by our only real ally in the Middle East.

The wild card in all of this seems to be Turkey. In order for the Israelis to mount a strike from their home turf, they would need to travel through Jordanian and Iraqi airspace. The latter would require at least a silent nod from Washington because the United States controls Iraqi skies. However, since Secretary Gates has been an outspoken opponent of Iranian strikes and has garnered a large measure of respect from the military and the American people for turning DOD around, it is difficult to see how this would happen without causing a huge rift in both the administration and the military. On the other hand, Turkey could offer either airspace or basing rights to Israel, which would allow the Israelis to do an end run around the Americans and strike from the north. Striking from Turkey would also be much safer because search-and-rescue helos and tankers could base and operate within friendly airspace. Ingress from Turkey would also make Iran think twice about retaliation against the Turks, as Tehran would have to consider the severe consequences that would certainly arise if it attacked a member of NATO with the largest standing army in Europe.

Dr. Barnett has a pretty good take on the political situation. He essentially argues the political lives of Iran’s Ahmadinejad and Israel’s Olmert, both of whom are viewed by their respective countries as failures, would be well-served by war because it would give them an opportunity to maintain a grip on power. Olmert, for example, is under serious criticism for failing to enlist more international support to deal with Iran’s nuclear issue while Ahmadinejad’s reign has been a disaster as the Iranian economy is in a nose-dive spurred by run-away inflation. Students, who make no attempt to hide their love for America, are calling for his head on a platter. Nothing better to feed the masses than a healthy dose of blood-soaked nationalism. Additionally, Israel is extremely skeptical of a possible Obama administration, so better to strike while you’ve got friends in the White House. Not to mention the fact that an Israeli strike, according to Barnett, would help McCain’s prospects.

I’m skeptical about a McCain benefit. If Americans believe the White House is even remotely involved in some kind of strike, (i.e. silent nod on Iraqi airspace) Obama will almost certainly get a bump because I’m pretty sure most Americans (like 80+%) are against another war, especially involving one and possibly two nuclear powers. However, if Israel strikes unilaterally from Turkey and Iran retaliates against the Turks, which would require a response from NATO, McCain could possibly benefit since the retaliation could be spun as an attack. So again, it comes down to Turkey.

In a major departure from prior policy, Bush will send a senior envoy to international talks in Geneva this weekend with a “one-time deal” designed to talk the Persians down. Several members of the six-party talks have insisted upon a hard six-week “freeze for freeze”negotiations period, under which no further sanctions will be enacted and Iran will not add to its nuclear program. This period insures that war would not break out until after the Olympics thereby insuring heads of state will be in attendance at Beijing. However, the period is also a countdown.

Meanwhile naval activity is on the rise in both the Pacific and Atlantic theaters, as Europe, America, and their allies are putting a large number of ships to sea for some of the largest combined exercises in history. These combined fleets will be at an extraordinary state of readiness by the beginning of August, which will last into mid September when the US Navy is scheduled to rotate forces.

Dates to watch over the next few months: August 30, September 29, October 28, November 27, and December 27. These are days with new moons.