"Cold Worriers" Take Heed
Great piece from Tom Barnett on resurgent Russia.
Putin positions himself as Russia's Lee Kuan Yew
By: Thomas P.M. Barnett
One hears much about the death of democracy in Russia these days, especially as current president Vladimir Putin muses openly about slipping into the office of prime minister to sidestep constitutional term limits. As a former Sovietologist with a degree in Russian literature, I find this storyline all too familiar. But, rest assured, I likewise see America's Cold War victory remaining secure.
Russia enjoyed no real democracy in the 1990s, instead suffering an economic chaos that left society prey to all manner of gangsters. Not surprisingly, average Russians craved a return to order, which finally arrived in the political ascendancy of Putin's "siloviki," or "power guys," who spent their formative years working for the KGB.
During its final years, the dysfunctional Soviet system muddled along, thanks primarily to those who operated "on the left" (na levo), or in the black markets, and those who operated "on the right" (na pravo) or in the security services. The former kept the decrepit economy from collapsing; the latter kept the decrepit regime from collapsing. . . .
Befitting his Soviet roots, Russia's newest czar follows Vladimir Lenin's dictum that all politics can be summed up with one question: "Kto kovo?" or "Who dominates whom?" So we shouldn't expect Putin to leave Russia's political scene anytime soon, no matter which position he next assumes.
Coming out of the seven-decade coma that was the Soviet Union, Russia rejoins the world having substantially - and painfully - reinvented itself. Whatever economic statistics say, most Russians have adopted a middle-class mindset that places a premium on state-enabled stability and income growth. In this regard, it makes less sense to compare Putin to former Russian leaders and more sense to compare him to Singapore's founding father and long-time leader, Lee Kuan Yew, who after overtly ruling for many years, still covertly steers the country as "minister mentor" to his son the prime minister.
Putin's ruling cohort were all hand-picked by him, with the key common denominator being longtime service at his side going all the way back to his days running St. Petersburg. These are highly educated bureaucrats who, according to a recent, close-hold report by a U.S. Defense think tank, have been assembled by Putin to focus on a narrow agenda: economic growth, energy exports, national projects that improve the life of the Russian people, internal security and the regime's long-term political continuity.
Full article.
Barnett has cooled off lately due to some bad analysis on do-no-wrong China and Iraq, claiming everything would be hunky dory with partition without lending credence to the fact that partition could be a disaster for the Sunni due to a lack of resources without revenue sharing. Plus, I didn't think much of his second book; 20% analysis and 80% look how great I am. However, he gets back to his roots here. On Iran, North Korea, and Russia he remains solid.
Putin positions himself as Russia's Lee Kuan Yew
By: Thomas P.M. Barnett
One hears much about the death of democracy in Russia these days, especially as current president Vladimir Putin muses openly about slipping into the office of prime minister to sidestep constitutional term limits. As a former Sovietologist with a degree in Russian literature, I find this storyline all too familiar. But, rest assured, I likewise see America's Cold War victory remaining secure.
Russia enjoyed no real democracy in the 1990s, instead suffering an economic chaos that left society prey to all manner of gangsters. Not surprisingly, average Russians craved a return to order, which finally arrived in the political ascendancy of Putin's "siloviki," or "power guys," who spent their formative years working for the KGB.
During its final years, the dysfunctional Soviet system muddled along, thanks primarily to those who operated "on the left" (na levo), or in the black markets, and those who operated "on the right" (na pravo) or in the security services. The former kept the decrepit economy from collapsing; the latter kept the decrepit regime from collapsing. . . .
Befitting his Soviet roots, Russia's newest czar follows Vladimir Lenin's dictum that all politics can be summed up with one question: "Kto kovo?" or "Who dominates whom?" So we shouldn't expect Putin to leave Russia's political scene anytime soon, no matter which position he next assumes.
Coming out of the seven-decade coma that was the Soviet Union, Russia rejoins the world having substantially - and painfully - reinvented itself. Whatever economic statistics say, most Russians have adopted a middle-class mindset that places a premium on state-enabled stability and income growth. In this regard, it makes less sense to compare Putin to former Russian leaders and more sense to compare him to Singapore's founding father and long-time leader, Lee Kuan Yew, who after overtly ruling for many years, still covertly steers the country as "minister mentor" to his son the prime minister.
Putin's ruling cohort were all hand-picked by him, with the key common denominator being longtime service at his side going all the way back to his days running St. Petersburg. These are highly educated bureaucrats who, according to a recent, close-hold report by a U.S. Defense think tank, have been assembled by Putin to focus on a narrow agenda: economic growth, energy exports, national projects that improve the life of the Russian people, internal security and the regime's long-term political continuity.
Full article.
Barnett has cooled off lately due to some bad analysis on do-no-wrong China and Iraq, claiming everything would be hunky dory with partition without lending credence to the fact that partition could be a disaster for the Sunni due to a lack of resources without revenue sharing. Plus, I didn't think much of his second book; 20% analysis and 80% look how great I am. However, he gets back to his roots here. On Iran, North Korea, and Russia he remains solid.
posted by Will at 4:52 PM
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