Kosovo Fans East-West Tensions

Yesterday, Kosovo, amid a flourish of Albanian and American flags declared its independence from Serbia, which was immediately recognized by the United States, France and Britain. Germany and Italy are also expected to recognize Europe’s newest nation, and with their western EU partners, will authorize a small security team to help transition the nation to statehood.

Other EU members are expected to be less enthusiastic. Spain, fearing an identical ethnic uprising from the Basque area in northern Spain, has voiced disapproval; while Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus also have concerns that recognition would embolden their own Orthodox-heritage secessionists.

The big dog on the block though, is of course Russia. According to a London Times’ editorial:

Moscow has long sided with Serbian nationalists, though the recent re-election of Serbia's pro-West President may limit its influence in Belgrade. But last week President Putin warned the West that Moscow was far from resigned to Kosovan independence and would be “forced to act”. Without UN approval, he said, independence would set a precedent for other “frozen” conflicts, such as the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and the Trans-Dniester area of Moldova. Moscow may recognize their independence, provoking new tensions. It is likely also to prove an even more prickly partner in the Security Council.

There are good and bad elements to all of this. The good news is that Kosovo’s declaration was met with words of condemnation from Serbia and the Russian Bear instead of actual tanks; Slovenia was not as lucky in 1991. Kosovo also represents another former-member of the Warsaw Pact that has cut its ties to Moscow and desires safety and security under EU and NATO auspices, which is also good.

On the other hand, this represents another chapter in the downward spiral of Russian relations with the West. This has been, sadly, a missed opportunity. Blame Clinton for looking inward and ignoring the struggling Russian economy or blame Bush for alienating his soul-brother through intimidation or blame Russia for pushing us away through baited rhetoric, no one can deny that our relations are slipping. Whether we will slip all the way to our Cold War days remains to be seen. I doubt we will; the Russians are still a shadow of their former-Soviet selves militarily, confining intervention to their own borders, and still remain committed to joining the global economy through energy exports but it’s pretty much certain that, for the foreseeable future, we will look east and find an adversary rather than a friend.

And that’s sad.

However, it is good to see foreigners waiving American flags again.