The Devil Went Down to Georgia

A few days ago I went to bed fully intending to write a blistering critique of Bush & Co. this morning since they seemed to be content to throw Georgia under the bus without lifting a fucking finger. However, I awoke to better news. The U.S. Navy has now been cleared for a humanitarian relief mission which reportedly will include USNS Comfort, and has pulled out of a naval exercise with Russian forces. Meanwhile, relief supplies are being flown in by the USAF (alone I might add. Hats off to the Frenchies for moving quickly here on the cease-fire but where are the troops?). These are smart moves. While the ability of U.S. personnel to deliver aid will certainly be limited, having U.S. boots on the ground will act as effective insurance against a full-blown resumption of hostilities by Russia. You start killing U.S. soldiers in an artillery barrage while they’re handing out water and you’re gonna have SERIOUS problems.

So now what?

Well, Russia is back baby and Secretary, I mean Comrade, I mean President, I mean, oh yeah Prime Minister Putin is clearly in charge. So what do we do? For starters we need to wait and let emotions cool before we make some stupid-ass move that will hurt us and Georgia long term. Now let’s be clear, Ivan did invade in its normal textbook style, it incited anti-government attacks by pro-Russian militias in South Ossentia designed to goad Georgia into attacking and greeted the Georgian crackdown with a well-planned offensive that brutally slaughtered soldiers and civilians alike in unabashed fashion while the Ruskies raped and pillaged as they advanced. Historically, these developments mirror Nazi Germany’s occupation of the Sudetenland in order to protect pro-German Czechs in 1938 almost to the letter, all be it without the raping and pillaging. Meanwhile, the West looks like a bunch of weakass idiots who backed the wrong horse in Saakashvili and seriously underestimated Russia. Therefore, there are plenty of reasons to get pissed and get cowboyed-up. But we need to keep our eye on the ball.

Clearly, eastern Europe and the former Soviet Republics (especially the Ukraine) need to be assured that we’re serious about stemming this sort of aggression. Bob Killebrew over at Small Wars argues for Ivan’s containment and offers some suggestions:

For military strategy, the U.S. should immediately revamp its foreign military assistance programs to those countries, including a post-invasion Georgia. The intent of U.S. aid now should not be aimed not only at preparing forces for low-intensity conflict -- because most of these states have their own problems with breakaway militias and extremist terrorism -- but also at deterring Russian high-intensity, combined-arms attacks. Advanced integrated air-defenses (the Georgians had none), antitank munitions, precision weapons all must be provided so that Russia can no longer plan a walkover like the one we have witnessed. Military assistance groups should be stationed in frontline states, and m military exercises conducted calibrated to bolster the defensive capabilities of local armies. The Russians will cry foul, but their military authorities will understand what they are seeing -- no more easy campaigns. Military aid must include methods and training in our best techniques for computer network defense, a move that -- given the global nature of computer networks -- will integrate our allies' defenses with ours.

These are sound hard power options that need to be implemented alongside soft power components, which can be accomplished by a successful deployment of Comfort. On the other hand, it is interesting to note the U.S. and Poland reached a deal yesterday on a missile defense shield that had some very unusual aspects. This is the kind of stuff we need to be careful about. Making big decisions in a crisis basically to piss Russia off because there really isn’t anything else we can do should be avoided. Let’s get real, when Moscow escalated they knew we would sign that deal. So again we’ve played into Putin’s hands and given him plenty of propaganda material. There certainly is a Big War crowd in the Pentagon that’s just going to be happy as pie about this sort of stuff. The bigger the perceived threat the more we get to spend on kick-ass high-dollar weapon systems but the less money there is to fight the war on terror. The big winner in all this might just be Osama.

So, I’d say we need to hold it for awhile and reassess our policy after tempers have cooled. We’ve still got major problems to deal with re: Iran and while violence in Iraq is down, it seems to be hunting season again in Afghanistan. Face it folks we can’t fight everyone. It’s gonna take Comfort at least a month to arrive on-station so lets work the soft power angle for a bit before we start handing out missiles.